Ray Carman – Auctioneer

I thought this post a very worthwhile read, especially for those who are real estate practitioners.

This is a good one too.

And one more.

With yesterdays 778 point drop in the Dow average, people are starting to ask “What do I do now?”

I think that answer is fairly simple, WAIT! When people panic, catastrophe awaits some which allows others who are skilled to make greater amounts of money. As I write this, the Dow average is up 394 points today, regaining half of what it lost yesterday. We saw a similar plunge and rebound immediately following the attack on 9/11.

So how does this play into the Real Estate Market? The same, Be patient, and strike while the iron is hot. People are going to get nervous and they are going to pull money out of the market to protect their retirement and future well being. While they are doing that, they more than liely are NOT going to run it down to a local bank for a saving account, but rather seek refuge in one of the greatest and most stable markets of all time, Real Estate. Granted, they probably will not be investing in new homes, but they will be seeking out rural and raw land into which to reinvest this money. They also will be seeking out investment properties for rentals  or short term turn overs.

So, if you are either holding a piece of land, or looking to invest, now is actually a Great time to be in the market. Prices are at lower levels than two years ago, and are perched to make a great increase over the next 5 year period.

If I can be of any assistance, or one of our staff, please feel free to give us a call. 615-824-0044

I was reading a friends take on the financial world today, and he made an attempt at predicting the future. Prior to doing so, he quoted someone as saying, “forecasting the future is basically us telling you what we think will happen, then explaining why it did not.” With that in mind, I will tell you what I see happening in our Real Estate future.

To have somewhat of a grasp on what is ahead, we must first understand what is behind. We have seen in our nations history, several “real estate” bubbles that have come and gone. Prices have risen and then due to some financial “crisis,” prices have dropped and people have endured tough times. BUT, the nation has always found a way to survive again.

Bringing tha down on a personal level here in Sumner County. We have seen unprecedented growth in this area both comercially and residetially. And contrary to what some have said, this growth is still going and growing. IN the wake, some smaller contractors have found themselves on the wrong end of the housing “slump”, and banks have become home owners and/or the determining factor in what houses bring in newer subdivisions. Prices increased drastically from 2000 to 2006, allowing builders nad homeowners to experience tremendous growth in their homes/property value. Many cashed in on this market and moved “up” to a better life on larger/newer homes. People with no money and no crdeit were able to borrow money to buy homes wothout even a check into their credit history or job situations. Prices grew, buyer bought, people enojyed greater lifestyles than they ever could imagine.

Then, a little ripple started making its way across the country, from west to north, south to east, as 3 yr ARM mortgages that were interest only, or low interest, started coming due for renewal, and the lenders had retracted their willingness to lend money for interest only. People in 500k homes paying a small interest only payment found themselves owing double the interest and a principle payment as well. Thus, the “bubble” started to “crack” and homes began to end up in bankers hands.

For a short while, this played well for investors who were picking up homes at reduced prices in hopes of making some good returns. But eventually, this played out as well when the numbers of available homes began to swell as more and more people found themselves unable to pay. This left a few investors clamouring for buyers and dropping prices to unload a overstuffed porfolio of investment homes.

Sumner County did not really feel this surge until late 2007, as some of the larger homes in the area that had been built over the past fives years began to show up on the foreclosure map. This in turn began to affect the sale of new construction homes, as the subprime lending market began to fold.  Investors on Wall Street saw the bubble starting to unravel, even announcing it in emails to each other saying things like, “lets hope we have all made our money and found our way out before this all comes apart.” (quoted from an interview on 60 minutes last night.)

This was only the tip of the iceberg, as news reports started coming from CA, showing medium income individuals who had taken advantage of “no money down, no credit, no problem, just sign here” lending, and now they were in tents in large fields, living on all they had left, tarps and tents, struggling for their next meal. People here in Middle TN began to really understand the enormity of this only in the Spring of this year as more and more homes found themselves in the hands of banks, from new construction to first time buyer homes. And as banks found their inventory rising, they started to package and unload homes at drastically reduced prices. (see Michigan, banks selling houses in lots of 8 to ten to investors at pennies on the dollar).

All this and now we stand in an election year, with two unproven tickets vying for leadership of a ship that seems to have major cracks in the hull. How will this fair out for our local Real Estate Market.

Despite all the bad news, here is the truth. Houses and property are still selling. The rate at which they were moving has come to a crawl (from 30 or more a day to 10 on a good day), but they ARE still moving. As the election draws nearer, we can expect it to slow even more, as people watch the bailout plan and the election in progress. And, I believe, irregardless of who wins, our market will see a surge in 2009, as hopes for a brighter future emerge under a new leader. There will be a bubble to hit, and if hit timely, could see some folk out of the “crisis” they are in personally as they struggle to pay a mortgage or have a readjustment hitting them soon. We will see rising confidence in a market place and life apparently getting back to normal. And, depending on who wins the election, we will see how long this bubble last before reality sits in on choices made by former presidents dating back to the early 90’s.

All that said, it is imperative that we watch carefully for this “bubble” of hope to rise, and move with precision and accuracy to see your aspirations come to fruition in the Real Estate market. It is imperative you seek out wise council for your decisions you are making and have proper pricing and strategies for your real estate needs. This next surge will be very important to hit in a timely fashion.

So whether Real Estate private treaty or an Auction, be sure you seek out someone with your needs and desires at the top of their Priority list. If we can be of assistance in any way, we would love to hear from you. Priority One Real Estate and Auction, Ray Carman (broker/auctioneer/owner), 824-0044.

Howdy to all my friends and family. It is good to sit and write to you.

As you all know, Katie and I have been extremely blessed to live in the world of Real Estate and Auctions. Since many of you have been with us from the start, I thought I would share how things have gone.

Since opening in May 2006, God has done some miraculous things in our lives. Coming from literally “scratch” , God has consistently provided for our needs and beyond. We have met new folks and ave been blessed to serve some old friends in the business. We have also been blessed with the addition of some great staff in Steve Griffin, Kelly Koch, and Jennifer Rowland. Each brings their unique skill set to the company and they have been a huge blessing to Katie and I. Many of you have allowed me to serve you in your real estate endeavors during this time, and I PROMISE, each one has been both timely and a major blessing to us and others!

Some of you are currently working with us in this market, and things from a media perspective have been bleak at best. If on e watches the news too much, you might start feeling as if it is time to dig out bunkers and wait for the end of the world. I assure you, that is not true. Some of you are experience backlash from what the market has given us. Loss of jobs and times of uncertainty. Others of you are being blessed to find prosperity in a economy they say is failing. (p.s. how can anyone prosper in a “failing economy?) My point is, no matter your position in life, their are some firm foundational truths.

1. God loves you. Your life circumstances may say he is punishing you or has forgotten you, but the truth is, He has never been closer than He is today. If their is one thing I have learned along this journey of starting Priority One, it is God is much more than I thought He ever was. So, please allow Him to love you as He is trying to do in the good times and difficult ones as well.

2. Things are not as bad as they might appear. Like mentioned earlier, if you watch too much news, you can really start to feel a heavy burden from the “news” they share. You would almost start to believe that our world as we know it is about to implode. (Beatles song here) The fact is, it is not! YES, the market has slowed tremendously in Sumner County, as I have mentioned on the blog, but things are far from a grinding halt or desperate times. People are still buying homes. Banks are still lending money. Things are still moving. Just because they are slower is no reason to panic. We must understand the backdrop of “over lending” in the years 2000-2006, to completely understand why we are where we are. But, if you are someone looking to sell, do not be afriad to approach the market with your home. It is imperative that you consider a “true” market value of your home (which may be less than you paid if you bought in 05 or 06), but the market can still withstand having homes for sale that are properly priced. It is imperative that we do not “FEAR” drive our market today, but rather cool common sense.

3. Be patient! With all I have said above, it is critical we remain patient as the market goes through this time. Real Estate has seen drastic turns before ( 30’s, 70’s, 80’s) just to name a few times. We have always worked on a cycle of good times verses down. I was taught growing up that we had 7-8 years on top, then 7-8 years coming back around. Real Estate has been on the “top” of this cycle for approx 16 years. We have seen economic growth and housing booms like never before. Has that all been good? Not really! Thus the reason we are where we are today. BUT, the market has always rebounded and houses and land have consistently risen in value throughout American History. We have been blessed as a nation very much by God! But we have also seen times in which we have turned our backs on Him, and those times always have proven difficult. So, as we tread through these times, it is absolutely necessary that we be patient. If your house is on the market, be patient, a buyer will come if you have it properly priced. If you are thinking of selling, be patient with the market as it is taking more time to sell due to “overstocked” inventory. Allow your agent a REAL opportunity to sell your home by being aggressive and properly pricing your home at todays value. And if you are buying, be patient as you sift through the many homes available. Allow your agent to assist you by pointing out positives and negatives about each place, and listen to their advice. They do (or at least should) have your best at heart.

To all you who receive this email, thank you from the bottom of my heart for allowing us (Katie and I) to be a part of your life, For those who have been gracious in allowing us to serve you, we appreciate it more than you can ever know (after all, that is how we pay the bills and buy food! lol) And to those who are brave enough to work with me at P1, God bless your souls! You guys are awesome!

QUICK PLUG: who would I be if I did not add this little feature!

If you or anyone you know (friend, family, co-worker, neighbor, aquaintance) is in need of real estate services, please feel free to share our company and my name with them. In all the marketing monies and efforts to obtain new business, this one fact has remained true throughout the ages, their is no greater business obtaining method than WORD OF MOUTH by friends and clients. Our success has always, and always will, depend on you sharing our name with those you know. Without that, we would all be looking for a new line of work. Thanks in advance for your help, and for reading this far!

–
Ray Carman
428-4920
www.PriorityOneNews.com

In our increasingly troubled market across America, people are beginning to seek out a little R&R in the Real Estate World. No, not Rest and Relaxation, people need the other R&R.

1. Reassurance! People want to know that you are going to do everything in your power to make their needs come to fruition. They are not looking for the most glitz and glamor to come put on a show. They want to know that you, as an agent, have their absolute best at heart. This means being completely honest and upfront, even if it does not get you a listing or sale. People are quick to spot someone whose ultimate goal is to feed their own self interest or needs. A “needy agent” (one desperately needing to make their own mortgage payment or buy food or feed their high profile lifestyle) are quickly finding their way out the door. The public is not interested in how nice a car you drive or what your house looks like, but rather, how are you going to make them and their priorities, your priorities.

2. Results. Once you have earned their confidence and reassured them of their priority status in your business life, they still need results. A confident pat on the back does very little if you cannot provide the results they need. You have to make a great effort, even in down times, to bring their needs to the forefront and produce the product they desire, whether that be a house sold, or a great deal on a house they are buying. They are expecting you to come through on their behalf.

So a good strategy during these days and times is to be sure your client gets the R&R they are seeking!

I do not know about you, but I enjoy watching those “survival” shows like Man vs Wild and Survivorman! The basic themes for these shows are, drop a man into the middle of no where with only what he might have on him if he were on a trip to this area and make him come out of there using only what he can scrape up. Many times they are using real scenarios in which real people found themselves and either did not survive, or, barely made it out alive (usually with some scars to show for it.) The men in these shows demonstrate some really gross things you may have to do to survive ( like eat a skunk, drink body fluid from a dead animal, etc….). With the main point being, SURVIVE!

In our present Real Estate Market here in Sumner County TN, these feelings of survival seem to be all to real. Not only for agents and auctioneers, but also for customers and clients. In the years of feasting, there were more than enough buyers to keep ay and all agents fat and sassy. Sellers barely listed their home when they were fending off the offers. Buyers rushed to see every new listing as soon as it hit the MLS. Agents found themseleves having to refer clients and customers to fellow co-workers casue they simply did not have the time to service them all. Everyone was happy.

Then the winds begin to shift. Subprime mortgages hit the fan and the market began to crumble. Big banks started struggling. Finance companies floundered. Foreclosure rates sored, and people started to panic. Builders had inventory that began to have birthdays (new houses that had not sold for a year or more.) Supply began to rise as new home construction continued while the pool of buyers plummetted due to the sub-prime debacle. Then all the sudden, agents started grasping for buyers and sellers, each one becoming a huge comodity in a market going dry. Sellers began to wait and wonder if offers were coming and buyers became overwelmed by their options, they simply became frozen in indecision. Surviving became the main goal as many agents left the business in search for income as the “years of famine” began to set in.

But these times have been here before, and the market did survive for us to taste the times we have experienced in the past 10 years. And, the market will survive again. All you need is the proper tools, knowledge, and willingness to use your surroundings to your favor (even if it means eating a snake, YUCK.) Here are a few tips for making it through this troublesome market …….

1. Keep your cool. It does you and no-one else any good if you lose your head. You have to be able to think clearly and process your surroundings. If you panic, you are sure to make an unwise decision and the “vultures” will hover just waiting to take advantage of your demise.

2. Survey the situation. The best way to know how to make it through is to first know what you are dealing with. If a seller, look to see what YOUR market is looking like (your immediate area or neighborhood). Make your decisions based off what you see in your immediate area. As a buyer, know your limits and desires before you set off into the “wilderness of overstocked houses.” Knowing your financial goals and abilities will keep you from freezing up in the enormity of the available homes. As an agent, keep a keen eye on what is working in the market (advertising, pricing, open houses, etc..) and incorporate those devices into your game plan. This may mean you have to change some of your strategies, but being current will be a key to your survival.

3. Take stock of your supplies. As in any survival situation, it is important to know what tools you have on hand to survive the situation. For a seller, this may be the finest details of your home that will make you stand out from the rest. For the buyer, this is knowing your buying power coupled with a good financial plan with options B, C, and even D (if you lose your job, then what, etc…). And for an agent, it is knowing your abilities, available market strategies, and available finances for letting people know you are different and that is what they need.

4. Start moving. The worst thing you can do in just about any survival situation is to freeze up and do nothing. This is almost a sure sign of emminent failure and death in the market. Allowing fear to control your actions into non-movement will surely be your demise. Do steps 1-3, then start moving.

5. Be flexible! In any given situation, you are ging to have to adjust on the fly. Things will happen that will cause your circumstances to change, so you have to be willing to adapt or be consumed. If the market takes a shift after you start moving, adjust to the shift. Be proavtive and stay ahead of the game. Dont let it just happen to you. As you are moving, and you see a bend ahead in the road, prepare for it and be ready when it arrives. Doing so can be the difference in survival or failure.

6. Let your voice be heard. As you are moving and adjusting, it is key to make your presence known as you are going. In surviving the wild, people have been missed by mere feet due to the density of a jungle or the vastness of a desert or ocean. You have to let “them” know you are there. his means raising your voice so you can be heard. As a seller, you have to let your house jump and shout ever so often. Make it shine and spruce it up for people to know you are there and want their business. For the buyer, when you see “the house” raise your hand! Don’t wait for the price to come down or for things to be like what you want, make your offer like you want it and let them know you want it. Even if they do not jump on your offer right away, at least they will know you are there when they are ready to make a deal. As an Agent, you have to constantly raise your voice and let customers/clients know you are 1. in the business, 2. and you want their business, 3. and you have their best as your goal.

Now, I know much more could be said, but if you take these basics, you will be far ahead of those who are captivated by the fear of the troublesome times.

If you have any questions as a buyer, seller, or agent about how you might make it through these times, I would be happy to sit and speak with you about it. RayCarman@gmail.com or 428-4920.

Last week saw a surging rise in fear and financial market turbulance. As big name companies (banks) found themselves floundering and in need of help, we also saw the government step in to “shore up” these entities in order to avoid certain chaos in our financial market and markets world-wide. Whether or not this was a good move by the government. We all have personal opinions on this issue, but what we are interested in is “what does this all mean for Real Estate.”

This year has seen a slow process take place. Slowly our market has slown down to what some have termed a “crawl.” In 2007 we averaged around 15 t0 30 homes transferring a day.  This year, and especially in the past few months, that number has dropped to an average of 10 or less. It sounds like a gloom and doom coming to Middle TN.

BUT, we must be careful in our assumptions. Just because things have slowed, does not mean we are at worlds end. There is still plenty happening in the market around us. People are still buying houses and people are still selling. Banks are still loaning money and agents are still conducting business. People are still active and looking to move ahead.

I do not want to down play people who are feeling the crunch. People have seen loss of jobs and changes in their personal finances. But as with all “forest fires”, we must simply ride this flame out and await the dawning of another day. Every time a forest fire burns out, and the rains return, new growth emerges. The same will happen for the Real Estate market here in Middle TN. If you can hunker down, and ride out the storm, then rest assured, there is a “other side” of this one to come out on.

If I were handing out advice, one of them might be to turn off the news and watch your worries fade away. Like the man selling hot dogs in the great depression, you simply have to keep your head down and work, cause looking up will only cause you to become weary and frustrated and drive you to dispair.  Yes, the market seems rough, and times are tough, but our market will survive, and even thrive, when the embers bunr out.

That’s my thoughts, what are yours.

You have heard the old saying, behind every good man is a GREAT woman! In this case, that is no exception. Although my wife, Katie, has never had her real estate license and has never practiced the art of being a salesman, she is VERY crucial to the success of this company.

When we first opened the business, there was much ore needed than just a shingle saying we were here. Katie was absolutely vital in helping spread the word and also keeping me encouraged in the beginning. Every beginning comes with its doubts, but my dearest pushed us through them all. WIthout her, the company MIGHT have made it 6 months.

Now, 2 1/2 years later, her involvement is even more vital. She helps keep things organized (files, dates, appointments, etc…) and also keeps me on my toes. Rarely a moment passes that she is not thinking of new ways to push me through on some more ideas! Without her, P1 would not be the company it needs to be.

Katie was born and raised in the Gallatin area of Sumner County. After birth, she spent her next 18 years in one house with her family on the banks of Bledsoe Creek in the Cragfont area, just on the outskirts of Gallatin. She attended Southside Baptist School and played volleyball with the school team, winning several State Championships. She now has two girls, Hailey and Raygan, and is home schooling Hailey through kindergarten.

I am a truely blessed man to have such a wonderful wife!

Earlier this year (May), while attending a neighborhood function, Kelly Koch broached the subject of switching offices. She had been in Real Estate for awhile and was looking for a new place to hang her license. Having grown up with her brother, and familiar with their family here in town, I was excited when she ask if she could join us at P1. Ever since coming over, she has been working extremely hard and has been a great asset to the company. Here is a little more about Kelly in her own words:

“I was born and raised in Gallatin and I am the daughter of Kenny and Kim Starnes.  I am married to Chad Koch and we have a daughter, Sydney, who is eleven.  I went to school at Gallatin High School, received a business degree at Vol State Community College and currently am working on my bachelor degree from TSU.  I have been in real estate for 4 1/2 years and enjoy meeting new people and helping them achieve their goals.  I am excited to work for such a great broker!!”

If you are in the market for a home, and want someone who has your best interest in mind, please contact Kelly at KKOCH@realtracs.com or on her cell at 775-5141.